This bull mkt is not ending soon; Sensex to climb Mount 35K by Dec 2017

14 of 18 fund managers & analysts polled say Sensex may be in 30K-35K range while 2 analysts think it may try hitting 40K.
By : Kshitij Anand

If you are thinking of booking profits at current levels as market touched record highs this March, you might want to reconsider your decision because the rally is not over yet, according to a poll conducted by Moneycontrol.

The S&P BSE Sensex touched a fresh 52-week high of 29,614.79 on Thursday but is still 400 points short of its all-time high of 30,024 scaled on March 2015. The index will not just reclaim its all-time high but climb a fresh peak of Mount 35K by December 2017, which translates into an upside of nearly 20 percent from current levels.
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Almost 14 of 18 fund managers and analysts polled are of the view that the Sensex is likely to hover in a range of 30,000-35,000 while 2 analysts think that it could make an attempt to touch 40,000.

“Sensex could well hover in a narrow band of 5000 points where 30,000 being at the lower end of the range while on the higher side it could top 35,000. The Nifty50, on the other hand, could move between 9,000 and 9,500 by December 2017,” Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund told Moneycontrol.

The liquidity driven rally has already taken Nifty50 to fresh record high of 9,158.45 on Thursday and can well go beyond 9,500 by the end of this year.

Almost 60 percent of the analysts are certain that Nifty50 is likely to hover in 9,000-9,500 range by the end of the year while 40 percent feel that it could well surpass 9,500 marks and scale new peaks, according to analysts polled.

DSP BlackRock MF, which is one of the world’s largest investment management firm, sees Nifty50 climbing above 9,500 by December 2017 and sees Sensex to hover in 30,000-35,000 range in the same period.

Investors not just back home but globally cheered BJP’s strong show in the just-concluded state elections where the ruling government managed to attain a majority in most states especially in Uttar Pradesh.

The NDA government is all set to form the government in four of the five states which went to polls in February-March. Importantly, it won the UP election with a thumping majority, garnering a 40 percent vote share and winning 80 percent of the total seats in the state (325 out of 403).

A majority in Uttar Pradesh elections which is expected to boost Rajya Sabha tally was seen to be a referendum on the government’s performance and policies, particularly on demonetisation.

Strong macro data and stable December quarter earnings from India Inc. also boosted sentiment. Although some analysts are complaining about stretch valuation, analysts do not see a top emerging as yet.

Renewed retail appetite for equities has helped neutralize sustained selling by foreign institutional over the last seven months. This is contrary to the general trend in the past when retail investors’ entry was a sign of market topping out.

Between August 2016 and February 2017, local mutual funds net bought a little over Rs 45,000 crore of equities, compared to net sales of around Rs 2,600 crore by FIIs.

A dovish stance by the US Federal Reserve in its March policy meet settled nerves of investors across the globe including India. India is still a buy-on-dips market till it holds onto its crucial support level of 8,800 on Nifty50 and about 28,000 on Sensex.

Stocks, which hogged the limelight so far in the year 2017, are not a large cap but small and midcap stocks, some of which have more than doubled investors’ wealth in the same period.

The S&P BSE Mid and Smallcap index rose nearly 15 percent compared to 10 percent gains in the S&P BSE Sensex. But the rally is not over yet.

Most experts polled by Moneycontrol.com said that investors can still accumulate small and midcap stocks while only 2 out of 16 analysts which gave their view said that investors should book profits now and then buy at lower levels.

Where is rupee headed?

Strong foreign institutional flows (FIIs) propped up the rupee following a fresh 16-month high after BJP managed to clinch a thumping majority in Uttar Pradesh.

The rupee is now the third best performing Asian currency after South Korean Won and Taiwanese dollar since the start of the calendar year. But, further appreciation looks unlikely.

Almost 72 percent of the respondents polled by Moneycontrol said that the rupee is likely to hover in the range of Rs 64-67/USD by December 2017 while 17 percent are of the view that it would go below 64 and the rest feels that it would depreciate beyond Rs 67/USD.

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How to Get Your Confidence Back in 5 Minutes or Less

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There’s never a dull moment in business and life—not with the triumphant wins and the inevitable lows that come with them. The ups and downs can feel like a (crazy) emotional roller coaster ride. While common sense advice says to “think more positively” or see setbacks as just “bumps in the road,” failure is not an option for the time-crunched. Sometimes you just need an extra boost of confidence.

So how can you deal with self-doubt when the show must go on? Daily grounding practices can help turn things around—and quickly. These three mindset hacks take less than five minutes a day:

1. Hold a high power pose for two minutes.

In her famous 2012 TED Talk, which now has over 30 million views, social psychologist Amy Cuddy shares the science of body language and confidence. The associate Harvard professor conducted a study of those who held high power poses versus low power poses for two minutes before entering a job interview. Those who did the high power poses fared better than those who did the low power poses. The study showed that those who power posed had higher levels of testosterone and lower cortisol (the hormone responsible for stress). Their physiology affected the way they felt and allowed them to take more risks.

In Presence: Bringing Your Boldest Self to Your Biggest Challenges, Cuddy writes, “You want to take up as much space as you comfortably can.” So before a challenge, such as pitching potential investors or speaking to a large audience, practice power posing. This can be done in the morning when you first wake up, or if in public, you could also do this in an elevator or bathroom stall.

Try this superhero pose: Stand up straight, shoulders back, chin up with hands placed on your waist and legs hip-width apart. Feel yourself powerful and hold that pose for two minutes while taking deep breaths. You can also try a starfish-like pose where you raise your hands up in the air into a “V” shape and imagine yourself the victor at an Olympic event.

2. See the big picture of your life via your future self.

While it may seem arbitrary, having a long-term vision of yourself, even in your mind’s eye, can potentially put things into perspective. In the event of saving for retirement, for instance, before we’re likely to invest in ourselves, we have to like and respect our future selves. It helps to have a clear picture of who that would be.

Cuddy discusses a 2014 neuroimaging study done by UCLA professor Hal Hershfield in which he had people imagine themselves 10 years into the future. When he showed subjects age advanced photos of themselves and gave them an opportunity to invest, they were twice as likely to put money into the account than when not shown photos.

Cuddy further suggests, “You want to decrease the perceived gap between the self in the present and future.” Try it now. Imagine yourself in the future looking back on this challenge to gain perspective. Use print age processed images of your future self from this online tool if you feel so inclined.

3. Practice gratitude now and in the future.

It’s another way to gain perspective after a setback. Jenn Scalia faced challenges when she first started her business as a visibility and confidence coach. After dealing with a layoff, divorce and debt, the single mother knew she had to make some changes in her life if she wanted to see improvement. She not only invested in herself through online business and coaching courses, but also did daily practices, which helped her turn things around from $0 to half a million in revenue.

She says, “One of the first practices I committed to was doing daily gratitude. It’s really simple and it’s a great starting point for anyone who wants to start attracting more abundance in their lives. Every night, I would reflect on all of the amazing things that I experienced in my life. From running water to a compliment from a friend to getting a new client. Gratitude allows you to focus on the positive things in life—a lot of things we take for granted—and put you in a positive, high vibe.”

She continues, “Once daily gratitude became a consistent habit, I started incorporating gratitude for the future. In other words, gratitude for the things I wanted (but didn’t have yet). For example, I would give thanks for booking two new clients who paid me in full—even if it didn’t happen yet. This is really effective because the mind doesn’t know what’s true and what’s not true. So when you affirm what you want in the present tense, you actually start to believe it.”

So, replace a statement like “I want two new clients this month” with “I am so happy and grateful for two new amazing, paid-in-full clients.” This specific phrasing pulls what you want toward you.

To recap, try grounding practices such as power posing, envisioning your future self in the context of overall life and practicing gratitude. These simple practices will help you get back in the game with more gusto.

The single most effective way to get rich, according to a 90-year-old personal finance classic

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“A part of all I earn is mine to keep.”
Getting rich is surprisingly simple – and it all starts with grasping one, key concept: Pay yourself first.
That’s what George S. Clason preaches throughout his 1926 personal finance classic, “The Richest Man in Babylon,” a collection of parables from the wealthiest city of the ancient world: Babylon.

Clason opens with the story of Arkad – the son of a humble merchant, of a large family with no hope of inheritance – who grows to become the richest man in Babylon, thanks to wisdom he sought out from a rich money lender named Algamish.

One day, a group of Arkad’s friends decide to consult him. They ask him how he got so rich and how they can do the same.

Arkad tells them what Algamish once told him: Essentially, to save money before spending it, rather than saving money that’s left over.

“Say to yourselves, ‘A part of all I earn is mine to keep,'” he explains to his friends. “Say it in the morning when you first arise. Say it at noon. Say it at night. Say it each hour of every day. Say it to yourself until the words stand out like letters of fire across the sky.”

More specifically, he tells them to set aside a minimum of 10% of their earnings:

Take whatever portion seems wise. Let it be not less than one-tenth and lay it by. Arrange your other expenditures to do this if necessary. But lay by that portion first. Soon you will realize what a rich feeling it is to own a treasure upon which you alone have claim. As it grows it will stimulate you. A new joy of life will thrill you. Greater efforts will come to you to earn more. For of your increased earnings, will not the same percentage be also yours to keep?

Once you’ve made a habit out of setting aside at least 10%, put that money to work, Arkad advises his friends: “Then learn to make your treasure work for you. Make it your slave. Make its children and its children’s children work for you … Invest they treasure with greatest caution that it may not be lost.”

Making your money your “slave” is the modern-day equivalent to smart investing through your employer’s 401(k) plan or other retirement accounts, such as a Roth IRA or traditional IRA. Thanks to compound interest, your savings will grow tremendously over time – the trick is to set aside money regularly and to start as early as possible.

If you still have money left over and are hungry to continue investing, you can research low-cost index funds, which Warren Buffett recommends, and look into the online investment platforms known as “robo-advisers.”

5 Mistakes to Avoid While Planning Your Retirement

 

retirement

If you want to spend your sunset years in peace by having a good enough corpus that will be sufficient to support your post-retirement life, it is imperative that you avoid some of these common mistakes people make while planning their retirement.

1) Assuming expenses will go down

One of the common mistakes that people do is that they believe that post-retirement their expenses will go down. Experts believe that there may be a small reduction in expenses as one doesn’t have to spend on expenses such as travelling to office, and rent (assuming you are able to own a house by the time you retire). But health expenses are expected to shoot up substantially post retirement. Also, you may want to travel more post your retirement as you have more time in hand. So your travel expenses may actually go up after you retire. Making the right estimate for the expenses is important for the calculation of your retirement corpus. “It will be advisable to assume that your expenses will remain at the same level post retirement,” says Vivek Karwa, a certified financial planner.

2) Not accounting for inflation

The demon called inflation eats into your returns so ignoring it can cost you dearly.
If you can purchase an item for Rs 100 today, then you will need Rs 761 for purchasing the same item 30 years later, assuming a rate of inflation of 7 per cent. Therefore, while calculating the retirement corpus you will have to adjust your rate of return both for pre-retirement and post-retirement years with inflation to arrive at the right figure. “Not accounting for inflation will lead to a lower corpus amount instead of the actual required and after a few years of retirement you will burn your cash reserves,” says Anil Rego, CEO & founder of Right Horizons, a financial planning firm. “In short you won’t be left with any money to live.”

3) Delaying retirement planning

Planning for retirement is generally last on the priority list of many individuals. Starting early will help you accumulate more with less investments. If you start at the age of 20, you will be able to accumulate a corpus of Rs 3.16 crore by the time you retire at the age of 60, at a rate of return of 10 per cent per annum with a monthly investment of Rs 5,000. But if you start at the age of 30, you will need to invest Rs 13,988 monthly to achieve the same amount corpus at the same rate of return.

4) Not estimating life expectancy correctly

Life expectancy in simple terms means how long you are going to live. It is critical that you calculate your retirement corpus that will be sufficient to support you till you live. Although there is no thumb-rule for assuming the number of post-retirement years, experts believe it is advisable to calculate it on the higher side so that you don’t run out of money.

5) Not investing in growth assets

With inflation hovering around 6-7 per cent, the post-inflation returns from debt assets like fixed deposits will be very low or negative at times. “Equities are one such avenue which offer higher returns in long run and that too tax free. Higher the returns, higher will be the corpus formation. Thus it is advisable to have a certain proportion of equity investments in your portfolio based on your risk profile,” says Anil Rego of Right Horizons.

Nifty’s long-term view only getting better: Raamdeo Agrawal

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Nifty’s long-term view only getting better: Raamdeo Agrawal

Ace investor Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint MD, Motilal Oswal, says investors should be prepared for muted short-term returns.

The widespread selling that played out on Dalal-Street on Monday spared no one; every investor big or small was punished. But that doesn’t mean it is time to give up on India, says ace investor Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint MD, Motilal Oswal.

In an exclusive interview to CNBC-TV18’s Shereen Bhan, Agrawal says there isn’t any panic among the minds of the investors, despite it being one of the largest falls.

“Clearly, people are not scared and running away from the market, they are actually saying that this is a great opportunity to buy and somehow they are piling on and so much so that yesterday we couldn’t stamp some of the applications,” he says.

On what seems like a new trend, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are now selling and domestic investors are buying and that set-off one against each other.

So, has the market bottomed now? 

Agrawal doesn’t believe so. He says the market has some scope to fall further, but the long-term view (12-18) months is only getting better due to a lower base. However, he cautions investors to be prepared for muted short-term returns.

Below is the verbatim transcript of the interview to CNBC-TV18.

Q: What a 48 hours it has been. After Black Monday, we have seen a turnaround Tuesday for our markets. We have seen ofcourse now the PBoC in China cut interest rates for the fifth time. Global markets are reacting positively to that piece of information. What do you make of the kind of volatility and the kind of turbulence that we have seen specifically in our markets on account of global factors?

A: One of the issue is the adjustment within China. Communication from there is not very smooth and most of the people don’t believe in what comes out from there. There is always a lot of confusion about what they are saying. So, clearly hard commodity, soft commodity, currency, stock markets, whatever can move has moved significantly in last 5-15 days.

So, clearly stock markets were to be affected finally and that did happen. I think technical guys had the best call so far I have seen, they got it right. So, there is no perceptible change in the economy. Of course the commodity companies say oil companies or a steel company or a aluminium company, zinc company, these companies definitely have their fortunes plummeting by the day.

However, that is a very small portion – may be 15-20 percent of the index but broader market actually is benefitting from the lower raw material prices and lower inflation eventually. So, it will be a two speed market. Yesterdays fall did not spare anybody – good, bad, ugly, small, big everybody was hammered.

Q: Speaking of yesterday’s fall, when we saw that 1600 point drop in the Sensex, there was panic on the street. I know that you have held a conference call today with your clients, what is the sense that you are getting specially given the kind of difference that we have seen with the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sale figure yesterday and the buy figure the highest ever, what do you make of that kind of divergence and what are you sensing now from your clients? 

A: Again two points, one is that this is the largest fall I have ever seen and yet there was no panic in the ground. At least among our retail clients and high networth individuals (HNIs), I don’t see any panic whatsoever. In fact we had the largest flow yesterday and even bigger today. So, clearly people are not scared and running away from the market, they are actually saying that this is a great opportunity to buy and somehow they are piling on and so much so that yesterday we couldn’t stamp some of the applications. So, clearly there is no panic among the minds of the investors but this is the largest fall per se. This a fundamental difference right now as far as the behaviour of the investor is concerned.

Second thing is that so far for last three-four years FIIs were buying, domestics were selling. Now FIIs are selling and domestics are buying, so in that situation-of course when there is a one set of and both of them are pretty big, now FIIs are 20-22 percent of the floating stock and probably retail and domestics are 16-17 percent, almost same size. So, they can take care of each other and so this bout of buying and of course FIIs are far more determined, far deeper pockets and they are present in all the blue chips, so clearly it will make a difference. I don’t think index can move significantly upward if FIIs remain bearish on India.

Q: Absolutely but you said that clients are seeing this as a buying opportunity and you have been flooded with calls over the last 48 hours but where do you really see value at this point in time and specifically as far as the midcaps are concerned, the kind of fall that we saw in the midcap index yesterday 9 percent being shaved off that index, would you hazard moving into nay midcaps at this point in time or would you stick with the blue chips? 

A: First thing is we stick with the blue chips, the quality and growth, that is our theme, so clearly we will stick to that and just one day’s 5-7 percent fall doesn’t change the portfolio construct. We buy midcap, we buy large cap and wherever there is quality and growth we will buy, so clearly stocks are 5-10 percent cheaper, so the people who are coming now, they are getting a much better bargain. So, I would think that the shorter-term return expectation should be muted and probably it can have few percentage point fall for some time but 12-18 months outlook is actually becoming better because the base is lower.

Source – CNBC – TV18

17 Principles for Becoming Hugely Successful

Source : BY ZOE HENRY Reporter, Inc.

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Business sketch

Napoleon Hill, author and one of the earliest recognized personal success experts, had a basic message for his students: Anyone can become rich, and you ought to stop thinking of wealth as tied purely to money or reputation. That became the driving thesis behind his best-selling book Think and Grow Rich, which has sold more than 70 million copies worldwide since its publication in 1937. Hill, who also served as an adviser to former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, famously wrote: “Anything the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can be achieved.” A new book, Your Right to Be Rich, due in September from Penguin Random House, synthesizes Hill’s most influential lectures in print, outlining them according to his 17 guiding “success principles.” Ahead of the book’s release, check out some of Hill’s best quotes of all time:
1. On having definiteness of purpose “If you want the mind to pick up an idea and to form a habit so that the mind will automatically act upon that idea, you’ve got to tell the mind what you want, over and over and over again.”

2. On developing mastery “Whatever it is that you lack in education, or knowledge, or influence, you can always obtain it through somebody who has it. Exchange of favors and exchange of knowledge is one of the greatest exchanges in the world.”

3. On applying faith “The subconscious mind only knows what you tell it, or what you allow other people to tell it, or what you allow the circumstance of life to tell it … it accepts the things that you send over, and if you send over predominating thoughts on poverty and ill health and failure, that’s exactly what you’ll get.”

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7 Principles Of Long Term Investing….


Through years of experience, we have observed the effects of fear, greed, lack of discipline, group think, and many other pitfalls that investors experience. Here are seven tips to help your clients become long term investors.

  1. Focus on the total real return

To maximize your client’s investment growth over time, it’s critical to factor in the effects of fees, taxes and inflation on the returns. Taxes can also take a serious bite out of investment gains each year and it’s important to structure investments to account for taxes on capital gains, dividends, and income. Inflation, the erosion of your purchasing power over time from increases in the cost of goods, is another insidious force that can eat away at investment growth each year.

In an effort to reduce risk, many people over-invest in fixed-income securities, which are highly exposed to inflation risk since they do not have the same potential for capital appreciation as equities. We recommend that our clients’ portfolios contain enough exposure to equities for their ability to fight inflation through growth.

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