14 of 18 fund managers & analysts polled say Sensex may be in 30K-35K range while 2 analysts think it may try hitting 40K.
By : Kshitij Anand
If you are thinking of booking profits at current levels as market touched record highs this March, you might want to reconsider your decision because the rally is not over yet, according to a poll conducted by Moneycontrol.
The S&P BSE Sensex touched a fresh 52-week high of 29,614.79 on Thursday but is still 400 points short of its all-time high of 30,024 scaled on March 2015. The index will not just reclaim its all-time high but climb a fresh peak of Mount 35K by December 2017, which translates into an upside of nearly 20 percent from current levels.
Almost 14 of 18 fund managers and analysts polled are of the view that the Sensex is likely to hover in a range of 30,000-35,000 while 2 analysts think that it could make an attempt to touch 40,000.
“Sensex could well hover in a narrow band of 5000 points where 30,000 being at the lower end of the range while on the higher side it could top 35,000. The Nifty50, on the other hand, could move between 9,000 and 9,500 by December 2017,” Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund told Moneycontrol.
The liquidity driven rally has already taken Nifty50 to fresh record high of 9,158.45 on Thursday and can well go beyond 9,500 by the end of this year.
Almost 60 percent of the analysts are certain that Nifty50 is likely to hover in 9,000-9,500 range by the end of the year while 40 percent feel that it could well surpass 9,500 marks and scale new peaks, according to analysts polled.
DSP BlackRock MF, which is one of the world’s largest investment management firm, sees Nifty50 climbing above 9,500 by December 2017 and sees Sensex to hover in 30,000-35,000 range in the same period.
Investors not just back home but globally cheered BJP’s strong show in the just-concluded state elections where the ruling government managed to attain a majority in most states especially in Uttar Pradesh.
The NDA government is all set to form the government in four of the five states which went to polls in February-March. Importantly, it won the UP election with a thumping majority, garnering a 40 percent vote share and winning 80 percent of the total seats in the state (325 out of 403).
A majority in Uttar Pradesh elections which is expected to boost Rajya Sabha tally was seen to be a referendum on the government’s performance and policies, particularly on demonetisation.
Strong macro data and stable December quarter earnings from India Inc. also boosted sentiment. Although some analysts are complaining about stretch valuation, analysts do not see a top emerging as yet.
Renewed retail appetite for equities has helped neutralize sustained selling by foreign institutional over the last seven months. This is contrary to the general trend in the past when retail investors’ entry was a sign of market topping out.
Between August 2016 and February 2017, local mutual funds net bought a little over Rs 45,000 crore of equities, compared to net sales of around Rs 2,600 crore by FIIs.
A dovish stance by the US Federal Reserve in its March policy meet settled nerves of investors across the globe including India. India is still a buy-on-dips market till it holds onto its crucial support level of 8,800 on Nifty50 and about 28,000 on Sensex.
Stocks, which hogged the limelight so far in the year 2017, are not a large cap but small and midcap stocks, some of which have more than doubled investors’ wealth in the same period.
The S&P BSE Mid and Smallcap index rose nearly 15 percent compared to 10 percent gains in the S&P BSE Sensex. But the rally is not over yet.
Most experts polled by Moneycontrol.com said that investors can still accumulate small and midcap stocks while only 2 out of 16 analysts which gave their view said that investors should book profits now and then buy at lower levels.
Where is rupee headed?
Strong foreign institutional flows (FIIs) propped up the rupee following a fresh 16-month high after BJP managed to clinch a thumping majority in Uttar Pradesh.
The rupee is now the third best performing Asian currency after South Korean Won and Taiwanese dollar since the start of the calendar year. But, further appreciation looks unlikely.
Almost 72 percent of the respondents polled by Moneycontrol said that the rupee is likely to hover in the range of Rs 64-67/USD by December 2017 while 17 percent are of the view that it would go below 64 and the rest feels that it would depreciate beyond Rs 67/USD.